bernardini best bet

By Dave Ord

Juvenile Fillies:

Cash Included probably deserves to be favourite for this but only because something HAS to be at the head of the market. This is the most inscrutable race of the night. From what we have seen so far this is not a stellar bunch of two-year-old fillies. Most of them are unproven at the distance, highly questionable at the distance and half are coming out of a race on the polytrack at Keeneland which it is very hard to make head or tails of. I wouldn't be getting into a hole by getting married to any short-priced favourites to start your afternoon here.

Juvenile:

This is a little like the Juvenile Fillies in as much as the contention runs pretty deep but the quality is much higher. I couldn't argue with anyone who went five or six different ways here. Todd Pletcher holds the strongest hand with Circular Key and Scat Daddy. Both are pretty nice horses.

Filly & Mare Turf:

I see this as a two-horse race and a titanic showdown between Ouija Board and Wait A While. The latter, you could argue, has been the most impressive grass horse of either sex in the United States this year. It is remarkable for a three-year-old filly to criss-cross the country twice to win major races in both New York and California. She is clearly the real deal but so is Ouija Board. I am looking forward to seeing these two hook up down the stretch.

Sprint:

Henny Hughes is forecast to start favourite but I feel that could be something of a mistake. I am not convinced he is any better than Bordonaro who is coming into this race off the back of a faster performance in California and has won in the mid-West before. Henny Hughes is a nice horse but I'm not yet convinced he is a world-beater. If he is going to be a short price then personally I am going to take him on with Bordonaro.

Mile:

I think you may have the edge on us in this race - as you usually do. Make no mistake Aragorn is a very solid horse but he hasn't exactly been beating international Grade One opponents all season. I feel funny encouraging Europeans to bet against our horses but he could be over-rated in your eyes as his Grade One wins over here aren't like yours over there.

Distaff:

Fleet Indian is a filly who has turned into a completely different horse this year. She is on a tremendous winning streak and last time she proved she didn't need to lead to win. She is perfectly solid but has a razor-thin edge over the rest of this field and there are four of five who can win. Don't get married to Fleet Indian either.

Turf:

The home team is a little better than usual this year. Cacique and English Channel are pretty nice horses who would at least be competitive at the top level in Europe. But the whole question of the race is Hurricane Run and on his best day he would absolutely destroy this field. While his form appears to be tailing off I have to think they believe there is some hope for a rebound by the fact they are sending him over at all.

Classic:

There is a great deal of substance about Bernardini. He is a horse who hasn't quite had his due because of the unfortunate occurances in the Preakness. It was Bernardini's coming out party but it was the same race when Barbaro was hurt and the winner's quality was a little lost back then. Since the race he has been beating up on small and bad fields but that isn't the horse's fault. He is extremely fast against the clock and the only thing that could beat him is his first taste of really tough competition. If he runs his best race they are all running for second money. We are obviously deeply respectful of your multiple Grade One winners in George Washington and David Junior but it's such a complete crap shoot. Look what happened when they sent Dylan Thomas over, he couldn't get out of his own way on the dirt. They are taking a free shot at increasing the stud value of these horses with one chance to prove they handle the dirt but personally I Iean against them for that reason. Of the other American horses I prefer Invasor over Lava Man. The latter is a good, tough, old campaigner but he has never done anything outside the state of California and has never run against really top company. Invasor, if he is fit after a lay-off, is the one Bernardini has to fear.

Bet of the night?:

I would say the most likely winner on the card is Bernardini and if I can get 2/1 or better I will play Wait A While against Ouija Board. The two of them look a ton better than the rest and one of them will definitely win the Filly & Mare Turf.